TY  - SER
AU  - Bro, Jeppe
AU  - Eriksen, Jonas N
TI  - Subjective expectations and house prices
SN  - 0378-4266
PY  - 2025///
CY  - Amsterdam
PB  - Elsevier B.V.
KW  - House prices
KW  - United States
KW  - Subjective expectations
KW  - Research
KW  - Quantitative research
KW  - Journal articles (Open access)
N1  - Includes bibliographical references
N2  - Abstract : We study U.S. house price movements using a variance decomposition based on subjective expectations data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. We find that households’ subjective cash flow (income) expectations account for the dominant share of the overall variation in house prices, whereas subjective discount rate (return) expectations are insignificant. This finding is robust across different samples and subgroups based on home ownership, census regions, income, and age. This contrasts previous evidence from VAR-based models for rational expectations. Households’ ex post forecast errors and ex ante expectational errors are predictable from housing market information and credit conditions
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426624002917?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=9144336d2ac2849d
ER  -